Forecast Activity of Heavy Rainfall Precursors

Use the dropdown menus to monitor heavy rainfall precursor activity in the first 15 days of the ECMWF subseasonal ensemble forecast.

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This webpage provides near-real-time monitoring of heavy rainfall precursors -- flow patterns which typically increase the risk of 90th percentile+ rainfall events in different regions of Europe and the Mediterranean. Precursor indices are standardised, with large positive values (heuristically; >1.5) indicating a substantially higher risk of heavy rainfall.

For more detail on the precursor approach, see our papers on this topic.

This is a research product provided with no guarantees of reliability: it should not be used in lieu of official forecasts from operational weather centres. Regions are defined based on a clustering algorithm which groups together locations with highly correlated daily rainfall. Names of regions are necessarily approximate, and should not be taken as an implied comment on geopolitical borders.